Not long ago we presented the Current Market Outlook, Boeing’s forecast for commercial passenger and freight aircraft. This week we focus on the Airbus version, called appropriately, the Global Market Forecast. If you want to view the complete 164 page PDF it is available for download. But if you want to see high spots in the breakdown, try the Interactive Showcase. Easy to use and sweet – gold star Airbus! Past editions of the GMF are also available via their home page as well (down at the bottom of the page).

Overall, the GMF is a bit bigger and slicker than the Boeing counterpart, however, both documents bare witness to a bright aviation future, albeit, jaded slightly, based on their individual airplane offerings and each company’s view of airline market requirements and strategies. Lets look at the big picture first. In a nutshell, both planemakers are reasonably similar, but what did you expect?

New Airplane Deliveries – Next 20 Years

Single Aisle Aircraft
Airbus – 16,977 pax and freighter aircraft valued at $1.2T
Boeing – 21,160 pax and freighter aircraft valued at $1.7T

Twin Aisle Aircraft
Airbus – 6245 pax and freighter aircraft valued at $1.3T
Boeing – 5802 pax and freighter aircraft valued at $1.6T

Large & Very Large Aircraft
Airbus – 1729 pax and freighter aircraft valued at $1.72T
Boeing – 720 pax and freighter aircraft valued at $220B

The obvious differences are at both ends of the aircraft size markets. Airbus see’s the value of the single-aisle planes at approx. $70M (average) each. Boeing numbers, on the other hand, give a figure around $80M. One answer might lie in an Airbus aircraft valuation speculation based on the influence of new single-aisle competitors.

The other end of the spectrum is easier. It is, no doubt, the Boeing perception of the demand for the A380, but you already knew that!

We should mention that Airbus sees the market (in order) US, PRC, and UK as the demand leaders, while Boeing’s list looks like America, China, and UAE in that order. Another difference factor in the two reports is the emphasis that Airbus places on aircraft replacement based on “ECO” factors. They are probably spot on here and it quite possibly stems from the European environmental focus. Boeing may include these factors in their numbers but it stands out in the Airbus report. To bolster a use of “ECO” and aircraft in the same sentence, we offer the input we got in this week from industry guru who told us that within the next few years, single digit percentages of aviation fuels will be bio-based.

Inflight Entertainment implications? Heres a SWAG – Assume IFE on a per plane basis is valued at $1.5M per aircraft and 80% of delivered planes install entertainment and connectivity. Using Airbus forecasts of 25,000 planes, this puts the next 20 years at $1.75B for IFE average per year for aircraft hardware. Since we are in an approximate $2B annual total IFE market, this “average” might not be too off base. However, dont take these numbers to the bank. If passengers bring on more IFE  and connectivity tools, or if costs like fuel rise and/or yields continue to drop, these are meaningless numbers.